PipStop

Really it's not as bad as it sounds.

I like Paul R. La Monica and his opinion on consumer confidence is shared by me. The Consumer Confidence Index is made up by people too smart for the average folk.

Believe me, I like the truth that numbers bear, but in this case we just have to look around us - or in my case I have to look around when I cross the border. I agree with La Monica that it's far more important to gauge what the consumer is DOING over what they are FEELING.

One point that wasn't really covered in this article is consumer debt. Many Americans have proven to be extremely resourceful when it comes to having to find money to buy things they don't really need.

Just like the currency markets can move in huge swings, so can seemingly anything else in life.

LaMonica illustrates:

Even with July's small rise in confidence, the last time the Conference Board's consumer confidence figures were in a range this consistently low was in 1992. The economy was already out of the 1990-1991 recession at that point. But it didn't feel like the recession was over yet. Consumers were dealing with housing woes sparked by a severe banking crisis. Oil prices were soaring. And it was a presidential election year. Sound familiar?

And in case you forgot, the economy didn't fall into the Second Great Depression in 1993. Stocks were back on track and the economy was on much better footing. The S&P 500 gained 7% in 1993 while the Dow and Nasdaq both rose nearly 15%. The lesson? Sometimes you have to be brave when everyone else is fearful.

What's disturbing to me is that Bennigan's has gone out of business (minus some of its franchisees, I guess). I actually don't drink and only loved going to Bennigan's whenever I was in Chicago because they make a great Monte Cristo.

Also, Starbucks struggles have now hit Australia, where it will close 61 stores and keep 23 open - an alarming ratio. I guess consumer doing in Australia as far as Starbucks goes is NOT good.

One thing that I always chuckle about is a Starbucks by where I live. It used to be open 24 hours, but now it's open until 12:30 p.m., but its transaction system closes out at midnight. So anyone going between midnight and 12:30 a.m. gets a free whatever they order.