(Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; uptrend lines in green; horizontal support/resistance lines in yellow; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)

9/25/2008 – EUR/USD – Price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, is currently in somewhat of a consolidation mode, seemingly undecided as to the next directional push. The parallel green lines on the chart show that price has bullishly begun to form a steep uptrend channel, having just hit the top of this channel a few days ago before retreating. Any continuation of this downward pullback should find solid support at or near the bottom of this channel, currently around the 1.4400 region. Overall, however, there is somewhat of a bullish technical bias to this key pair. Even with intermediate pullbacks and consolidation, price could eventually continue its climb towards the major resistance target around the 1.4960-1.5000 region. Not only does this resistance zone represent key prior resistance where price turned abruptly in the past, but it also represents a major 50% Fibonacci retracement level (the high-to-low retracement span being measured from the high reached on 7/15/2008 to the low hit on 9/11/2008).

James Chen

Chief Technical Analyst, FX Solutions

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