(Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; uptrend lines in green; downtrend line in red; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)

8/14/2008 – EUR/CHF – Price action on the EUR/CHF daily chart, as shown, has pulled back to the significant downtrend line above which it broke out late last month. This downtrend line is represented on the chart by the long red line, which price touched as resistance at least five times before breakout. Concurrently, a tentative uptrend support line has also begun to form (as represented on the chart by the rightmost green line).

Oscillators like the displayed Stochastics are also emerging up from oversold territory. Therefore, the technical bias for the pair at this juncture is towards a potential impending bounce off the support imposed by both the pullback to the downtrend line (in red) and the touch of the tentative uptrend line (in green). The first major resistance in this event resides around the high before pullback, around 1.6365. A clean breakdown of the current support, on the other hand, should target further major support around the 1.6000 region.

James Chen

Chief Technical Analyst, FX Solutions

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