EUR/USD

As one of my mentors ‘Zoltan Vass’ would say; Believe what you see!

Once again we have seen another volatile reaction after important economic news. And this was the strongest reaction so far. It is also important to note (as Zoltan pointed out to me) that this reaction is quite a contrary move to the news that preceded such a strong rejection.

How to trade this

For now it is best to look for selling opportunities. Thursday’s move produced a strong Engulfing Bearish candle and all other such candles have seen continuations after such moves. What is most likely here is a three wave move back up and then a continued drop down. It will be after the expected second drop down that caution is advised. For now I see the initial target to breach as 1.5555 which is the .618 re-tracement of this most recent move up.

AUD/USD

Somebody should tell the AUD/USD traders that the party is almost over!

Of all the majors trading against the USD the AUD seems to partying on a little late. What appears to be happening here is the final throws of an ending diagonal. We should see one more final wave up targeting the upper trend-line. I can’t accurately predict the top or whether we will strike the upper line but I can suggest that when the final top is in place there will be no subtlety to the reversal. Watch this pair closely over the coming week(s).

How to trade this

Look for a reversal Candlestick pattern in the reversal zone between the two top trend-lines. Remember there will be no subtlety to the reversal so the signal should be strong.

Good trading and happy Canada Day and 4^th of July!

Pierre