FX Weekly for February 18, 2008
Trading volumes may be below usual on Monday because of the Presidents' Day U.S. public holiday.
The dollar has fallen versus 13 of the 16 most-active currencies since Sept. 18 as the Fed cut rates by 2.25 percentage points to 3 percent to revive growth. The U.S. and Japanese economies may fall into a recession this year, and the Federal Reserve may lower rates by half a percentage point at its next meeting in March, said Toyoo Gyohten, Japan's former top currency official, in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
Housing Data
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of homebuilder sentiment probably held at 19 for a second month in February, one point above the record low reached in December, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg News, before the data is released tomorrow. U.S. housing starts remained near a 16-year low in January, according to a separate survey before a Commerce Department report on Feb. 20.
Carry Trades
The yen fell against 11 of the 16 most-active currencies after Japanese stocks rose, giving investors confidence to add to so-called carry trades.
The currency declined the most against the South African rand and the New Zealand dollar as the Bank of Japan last week signaled it is in no hurry to raise its 0.5 percent benchmark rate.
``The financial markets are calming down,'' said Tetsu Aikawa, deputy general manager of the capital markets division in Tokyo at Shinsei Bank Ltd., Japan's eighth-largest publicly listed lender. ``There are expectations stocks have almost bottomed out. This improvement of the sentiment will encourage yen selling.''
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – DAILY CHARTS
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.4965
Support: 1.4480
Sentiment: mildly bullish
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.9740
Support: 1.9340
Sentiment: mixed
AUD/USD
Resistance: 0.9200/0.9300
Support: 0.8885
Sentiment: bullish but getting overbought, caution!
USD/JPY
Resistance: 108.65
Support: 106.50
Sentiment: mildly bullish
USD/CAD
Resistance: 1.0125
Support: 0.9865
Sentiment: mildly bullish
USD/CHF
Resistance: 1.1105
Support: 1.0865
Sentiment: mixed
GPB/JPY
Resistance: 215.50
Support: 207.85
Sentiment: mildly bullish










