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    Picture of Pierre Charlebois
    FXStreet.com blogger

    Pierre Charlebois is one of Trading Post's Senior Trading Coaches and also serves as an Advisor with the GTC Group.

    He has a no-nonsense technical approach and uses several disciplines including Elliott Wave Theory, Candlestick Formation and Pattern Recognition in his teaching and swing trading.

Sunday, February 17, 2008

FX Weekly for February 18, 2008

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Trading volumes may be below usual on Monday because of the Presidents' Day U.S. public holiday.

The dollar has fallen versus 13 of the 16 most-active currencies since Sept. 18 as the Fed cut rates by 2.25 percentage points to 3 percent to revive growth. The U.S. and Japanese economies may fall into a recession this year, and the Federal Reserve may lower rates by half a percentage point at its next meeting in March, said Toyoo Gyohten, Japan's former top currency official, in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Housing Data

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of homebuilder sentiment probably held at 19 for a second month in February, one point above the record low reached in December, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg News, before the data is released tomorrow. U.S. housing starts remained near a 16-year low in January, according to a separate survey before a Commerce Department report on Feb. 20.

Carry Trades

The yen fell against 11 of the 16 most-active currencies after Japanese stocks rose, giving investors confidence to add to so-called carry trades.

The currency declined the most against the South African rand and the New Zealand dollar as the Bank of Japan last week signaled it is in no hurry to raise its 0.5 percent benchmark rate.

``The financial markets are calming down,'' said Tetsu Aikawa, deputy general manager of the capital markets division in Tokyo at Shinsei Bank Ltd., Japan's eighth-largest publicly listed lender. ``There are expectations stocks have almost bottomed out. This improvement of the sentiment will encourage yen selling.''

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – DAILY CHARTS

 

 

EUR/USD

Resistance: 1.4965

Support: 1.4480

Sentiment: mildly bullish

 

GBP/USD

Resistance: 1.9740

Support: 1.9340

Sentiment: mixed

 

AUD/USD

Resistance: 0.9200/0.9300

Support: 0.8885

Sentiment: bullish but getting overbought, caution!

 

USD/JPY

Resistance: 108.65 

Support: 106.50

Sentiment: mildly bullish

 

USD/CAD

Resistance: 1.0125

Support: 0.9865

Sentiment: mildly bullish

 

USD/CHF

Resistance: 1.1105

Support: 1.0865

Sentiment: mixed

 

GPB/JPY

Resistance: 215.50

Support: 207.85

Sentiment: mildly bullish