PipStop

I've received alot of insight into where the US dollar might be going in 2008. Pundits, prognosticators - or should I just lump everyone into the same "speculator" pile?

I came across an interesting thought by Raghee Horner today, whose RSS feed I'm subscribed to. Obviously the question of where the dollar is going in 2008 is a popular question, one that Raghee tackles and I'll share a snippet of her comments below:

"I really have mixed feelings about it because frankly it doesn't matter to the trader in me ... As a trader my main concern is movement ... beyond that I avoid two common mistakes:

1) trading with a directional bias
2) expecting reversals

I think these two mistakes are common psychological traps many traders fall into and as '07 comes to a close I think many traders start thinking about the more mental aspects to their trading game.

I wake up each morning with no expectation of anything:  up, down, or sideways I wait for an opportunity.  I have seen the price action over the years so many times that it's much like an golfer who is setting up a familiar shot or a quarterback recognizing a defensive play.

Many traders, especially traders watching the dollar, are anxious for a reversal...again, if I find myself waiting for a reversal it's because I am not in the current trend.  Think about it:  If you are short are you anxious for any kind of reversal?  No way! You hope the trend will last forever.

I take it one step further.  I like to look at both sides of any trade.  When I am setting up a buy, I think about what a trader would perhaps see if they were looking for a short.  Any good attorney or debater would do the same:  look at both sides of the argument.

Ok, so where is the Dollar going in '08.  Honestly I don't know and I don't care.  But what I can tell you is what the chart is telling me."