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    D. Harder is a contributor to Trading Post's trading newsletter, Bulls Zen Bears, providing experienced up-to-date market observations.

    Harder has over 25 years experience as an investment professional with Canada's leading financial firm. He is a member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts and the International Federation of Technical Analysts, and is a Fellow of the Canadian Securities Institute.

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May 2007

S&P/TSX Composite Index

Tuesday, May 8, 2007

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When the SP/TSX and other market oscillators (including the US Financial Services Index oscillator) turn up from an oversold level it almost always signals the beginning of a new up trend. Usually the VIX oscillator peaks and turns down at the same time confirming a change in trend. This occurred in: October 2002 making the end of the long bear market, March 2003 near the start of the Iraq War and SARS virus, in May 2004, in May 2005 after the Spain train bombing correction, again in October 2005 after Hurricane Katrina, at the end of June 2006, at the end of September 2006 after the resource sector ended a correction and again on Apr. 2, 2007. In 2006, the TSX corrected in the fall as the US markets kept rising so the TSX oscillator was the only market oscillator to become oversold at that time. By April 2007, the markets and oscillators were moving in sync again. In all other periods the TSX and US market oscillators turned up at the same time.

S&P 500

Tuesday, May 8, 2007
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When the SP 500 and other market oscillators (including the US Financial Services Index oscillator) turn up from an oversold level it almost always signals the beginning of a new up trend. Usually the VIX oscillator peaks and turns down at the same time confirming a change in trend. This occurred in March 2003 near the start of the Iraq War and SARS virus marking the end of the long bear market, in May 2004, in May 2005 after the Spain train bombing correction, again in October 2005 after Hurricane Katrina, at the end of June 2006 (after which the US markets had one of the longest rises without a 2% or greater correction) and again on Apr. 2, 2007.